who's going to win Le Tour

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who's going to win Le Tour

Postby wayno » Sat 19 Jul, 2014 8:18 am

sunday our time could be a big make or break day in the alps

will Nibali hold the lead. what about valverde, bardet, pinot, van garderen and of course the aussie Porte...
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby RonK » Sat 19 Jul, 2014 9:38 am

Porte has been shown the door. Barring illness or misadventure, His Nibs has it in the bag...
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby johnw » Sat 19 Jul, 2014 10:00 am

RonK wrote:Porte has been shown the door. Barring illness or misadventure, His Nibs has it in the bag...
I suspect you're correct. Was holding out hopes for Richie Porte but after last night that now looks like a lost cause. Still, it ain't over until the fat lady sings :wink:.
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby GPPJ » Sat 19 Jul, 2014 10:31 am

I agree about Porte.
Travel agents are probably the overall winners. The HD scenery has all been beautiful but last night, Grenoble area, outstanding.
[nb, I am probably a minority of one, but I do remember the Rainbow Warrior attack and their colonial legacy. Equality, Fraternity, Hypocrisy.]
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby wayno » Sat 19 Jul, 2014 10:59 am

fortunes can change, look at rodriquez. what did he loose? 20 minutes? end of the polka dot jersey for him, no more king of the mountains.... its not like previous years where they could dope up overnight to turbo charge the engine for the next day.. its most likely au natural now and they have to, keep performing day after day
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby GPSGuided » Sat 19 Jul, 2014 5:30 pm

A really odd Tour this year with all the big favourites falling out. Finally a chance for Nibali to take the yellow to Paris unless he has a bad mis-fire in one of the remaining stages, one that hasn't been short of this year. Can't see anyone challenging him now with Porte "bonking" out. Well, I think Nibali deserves one after trying for some many years. He's also more deserving of the win than Wiggins with his ability of win stages and showed he is worthy of such. None of that Wiggins style where he was dragged and dropped by his domestics for the win.
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby wayno » Sat 19 Jul, 2014 5:43 pm

what is showing is lack of depth in the teams, several teams have lost their lead riders and its virtually game over... if sky had fielded wiggins they could ahve hedged their bets. the cobbles of the north were always likely to claim casualties.. the weather resulted in more casualties... couple of dozen are out of the tour already.... fear of being dropped and loosing time or being caught back in the pack in pie ups has contributed to the big names pushing themselves and still ending up in crashes on the slippery roads...
and it wasnt necessarily one crash knocking people out... froome had two crashes that ended up in ending his tour... the big names must have been nervous with so many potential winners this year...
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby wayno » Sat 19 Jul, 2014 5:47 pm

sunday could be very intersting to see what nibali still has left in the tank after his big effort today... can he maintain enough form till the end of the tour or will he blow up like so many other contenders have dont, and of course can he also avoid injury...
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby GPSGuided » Sat 19 Jul, 2014 6:14 pm

Not sure there's a lack of depth but a case where the few teams who focused on a GC win have lost their leader at a point when their domestics have all been sacrificed on time, leaving them un-contestable by this point.Most of the other teams were never focused on GC but other priorities eg. Stage win, polka dot, green, white jerseys or team points. Who'd thought that Froome, Contador, Porte, Van Garderen, Cavendish and Cancellara would all exit by this time? If Froome and Contador were still around, Nibali would probably be fighting for just a podium position with Van Garderen and Porte at best. Need to check back-in-form Michael Rogers' time and position as he was going to be #2 after Contador on Saxo. But who is Majka on Saxo and 2nd on the GC list? Good time to make a name...
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby Giddy_up » Sat 19 Jul, 2014 6:33 pm

Do you all think this is a clean tour and they have sorted the doping out. Interested to know your thoughts, not being a cyclist.
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby wayno » Sat 19 Jul, 2014 6:39 pm

I think it probably is clean..
the speed of the riders has slowed down in recent years. and they have blood passports. where they measure certain markers in the blood and then re measure them at regular intervals. and if the measurements change by more than a given amount then its an indicator that they are taking something to make the changes excessive, so they dont even need to detect the drugs now, they are measuring substances that occur naturally but just taking note of the measurement variations... plus detection of drugs has improved. i think the culture has changed now too. it used to be there was a complete code of silence of the riders. no one would tell the truth. but theres more openness now.. theres a bigger risk of drug cheats being caught out and someone else reporting them.... the sport had to clean itself up. they were loosing sponsors , the whole profession was on the line. so i think they have wised up and decided going clean and making an effort to try and get everyone clean. its the only way to go in the future...
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby GPSGuided » Sat 19 Jul, 2014 8:28 pm

I am not so convinced. Sky has just booted one of its rider who had a positive result, although it was a sample from a time before he formally joined the team. There's a serious cultural problem there. As much as bio passport has changed the scene, there'll forever be those who tries to push that boundary. That's just human nature.
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby Giddy_up » Sat 19 Jul, 2014 8:34 pm

As a non-rider, the sport really does have a stigma about it now. Even the smallest indiscretion just reinstates the whole "Armstrong" factor all over again.
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby GPSGuided » Sat 19 Jul, 2014 9:55 pm

I think it's hard to attain the correct perspective from here for road cycling in Europe. Put it this way, cycling in Europe is being followed like RL/AFL here or NBA/NFL there in the US. In other words, it's a major support with all the money and doping habits that goes with it. Whilst the post LA era is significantly different, it'll take a while before that old culture can be completely filtered out from top to bottom. Continuing effort will be needed along with patience. Don't expect to see its complete eradication overnight.
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby wayno » Sun 20 Jul, 2014 5:36 am

its doubtful it will be 100% clean.. but i'd say the vast majority may be clean now.. there was an issue with froome last year,, his performance at times, statistically defied the odds..
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby wayno » Sat 26 Jul, 2014 1:00 pm

scientific evaluation of the performance of the Tours top contenders in a historical context

http://sportsscientists.com/2014/07/the ... -the-tour/
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby GPSGuided » Sat 26 Jul, 2014 1:18 pm

And we go back that 'innocent until proven otherwise' state. In the meantime, Nibali has it in the bag unless he does something really stupid. That solo attack on the Hautacam at 10km out was impressive and defining.
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby wayno » Sat 26 Jul, 2014 1:47 pm

GPSGuided wrote:And we go back that 'innocent until proven otherwise' state. In the meantime, Nibali has it in the bag unless he does something really stupid. That solo attack on the Hautacam at 10km out was impressive and defining.


yes but he's seven minutes ahead, the 2nd to fourth places are seconds apart.... he's either a freak or a cheat....
he's like lance he can sprint away from the opposition on a hard climb and few if any have a response.
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby GPSGuided » Sat 26 Jul, 2014 2:21 pm

Well, I would give him the benefit of doubt. He didn't even look to distressed when he dropped all on the Hautacam. He waited for no one. However, I like it. A GC winner needs to show he has the stuff to earn the title. Wiggins win was a joke in that he didn't or couldn't win one single stage and could not keep up with his domestique on a major climb. Wiggins was dragged all the way. Whilst I think Nibali Is a solid GC rider, I was truly surprised that no one could come close to him once Contador and Schleck exited. Are the rest really that bad?
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby wayno » Sat 26 Jul, 2014 2:22 pm

schleck is still riding.... its not that the others are that bad but nibali may well be doping his way to superiority...
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby GPSGuided » Sat 26 Jul, 2014 2:57 pm

Frank Schleck is still there but he is not at the same level his brother Andy once was. Andy had a really tough trough and not sure if he has got back up. Andy crashed out and to me, that's the end of team Trek.
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby wayno » Sat 26 Jul, 2014 2:58 pm

the fact that so many other decent cyclists have faltered and fallen behind significantly by now makes me wonder about whether Nibali is doping.
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby GPSGuided » Sat 26 Jul, 2014 6:39 pm

Or he is that much superior to the field. Look at swimming, similar can happen in those longer endurance races, where one swimmer can beat his next opponent by 1/2 a pool length or more. Guilty until proven otherwise. I wouldn't use the dope word but would discuss the performance.
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby RonK » Sat 26 Jul, 2014 11:04 pm

wayno wrote:
GPSGuided wrote:And we go back that 'innocent until proven otherwise' state. In the meantime, Nibali has it in the bag unless he does something really stupid. That solo attack on the Hautacam at 10km out was impressive and defining.


yes but he's seven minutes ahead, the 2nd to fourth places are seconds apart.... he's either a freak or a cheat....
he's like lance he can sprint away from the opposition on a hard climb and few if any have a response.

Seven minutes ahead of whom? A bunch of inexperienced youngsters and a tired and worn out Valverde.

With the demise of Froome and Contador, Nibali has not been challenged at all and is still fresh as a daisy. He simply has no opposition with any class.

Even his team has worked well - they are all still there and he used every one of them on the stages and only had to finish off, with plenty of beans left to sprint through the finale.

It has however, like this years Giro, been a very interesting tour, and it's been very encouraging to see so many new young faces at the front of the peloton.
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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby GPSGuided » Mon 28 Jul, 2014 6:03 pm

That's what happens when you get lean and super lean, and then depend on your legs to do most of the work. Bushwalking won't give you that!
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cycling/pho ... zxjs0.html

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Re: who's going to win Le Tour

Postby GPSGuided » Tue 29 Jul, 2014 10:00 pm

Now for some butt watching from Marianne Vos' handle bar cam... Final laps of La Course criterium for women.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H65GYfd2e84
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