Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby north-north-west » Fri 19 Aug, 2011 7:54 pm

sthughes wrote:So in summary I think humans are contributing significantly to global warming.


I don't 'believe' it. I've considered the question, looked at the science, and I accept that it is fact. It's logical. It fits with my observations and my understanding.

I don't think that in the long term it is as bad a thing as is represented by the media, but in the short term (next century or two) it will be very problematic to society. We do need to change radically from "business as usual" if our way of life is to be maintained into the future.


*sigh*
Yes, we will survive. The earth will survive. But many species will not, and their early passing will be a result of our greed and carelessness.

I've always tended to think we have a responsibility to tread on this earth as lightly as possible, both as individuals and as a species. To do as little harm as we can.
I don't always manage to live up to that, but I try. I just wish it didn't so often feel like a complete waste of effort, considering how we as a species and civilisation don't try. Or even care.

[End of despondent sermonising.]
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby ILUVSWTAS » Fri 19 Aug, 2011 8:09 pm

Yer for the sposed intelligent life form on this planet, we have no *&%$#! idea really.
Nothing to see here.
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby Ent » Sat 20 Aug, 2011 12:50 am

Might be asked who is responsible for the deafening silence? When the head of the British Science Society points out that scientist have done a poor sell job then you might understand why there are so many non believers. I love science shows but reports are "it is bad, real bad" but then they skip on the data behind the statement or treat man induced global warming as proven. We see regularly claims that we only use 10% of our brain. Err? I believe that there is not reputable study supporting that claim. If you look you will find real scientists rather than cranks claiming warming is a natural event. In the 1650 I think a mini ice age struck Europe. Then the UK enjoyed a remarkable warm and even climate and up went most peoples standard of living. Likely somewhere else fertile land became a desert. As for general scientific consensus I do seam to remember some thing about planets orbiting in perfect circles been rather universally agreed upon. Hard to imagine but with the atom bomb more than a few serious scientific minds predicted an uncontrollable chain reaction that would turn the Earth into a mini sun. Some similar concerns exist or existed over the creation of mini black holes in Switzerland not so long ago. Then we have the cane toad. Was that not a scientific cure to a problem?

Over time changing rain patterns have assisted great empires and trashed them to a desert. Also some have "engineered" there own demise through neglecting good farming practices. What is certain we are much more aware and on a knife edge to change. As for CO2 levels they "breath" between winter and summer so depends on when they a measured and how the season unfolds so you can not use a fixed date. As for averages, well are we talking mean, mode or medium?

The debate is not been helped by a few scientist cooking the books. Also politics just does not help either. Australian Governments seam to find an endless array of reasons to "broaden" the tax base, Fringe Benefits tax, GST, Mining tax and now Carbon Tax. The 1936 Tax Act was quite readable but now it is three if not four very large books and FBT and GST is heading the same way.

You also have "not in my life time" approach to ignoring problems. Along with the world will end tomorrow cries. I do remember that the sky would have fallen in if we apologised to the "stolen generation" but that seams not to have happened. So rather jaded by any sides' claims to disaster and their ability to ignore long term problems. Also aware that some things like favourable superannuation laws can result in Australians largely funding their own retirement. Get ready to see rising superannuation taxes :wink: As no doubt a Carbon Tax will result in improvements in energy production and use. But stay tune for Aurora to increase the fixed charges when power demand drops so it can keep its returns up to the State Government :wink: Oh, and this is not one party is better than the other type rant. Put money in front of any political party and it will be spent. I at the moment can not think of any tax been repealed despite extravagant claims made in the heat of a political battle. Oh yes death duties. Actually this was reinstated but now called Capital Gains Tax so moved from State coffers to Federal coffers :wink: Just have to love how the Commonwealth acquires taxes from State Government. Oh, yes who appoints the High Court Judges? I think it is the Federal Government :wink:

I say bring the proper debate on as at the moment largely what I have seen is mud slinging. May the best science win :D My money is on the CSRIO and NASA winning but maybe they might be found cooking the books or creating another cane toad situation. The sooner the debate the sooner to understanding if a problem exists and if so sooner to putting in the best fix in. Oh, sorry I forgot we need reporters to report the facts not sensation. Drats there goes that hope :(

Cheers
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby wayno » Sun 25 Dec, 2011 3:53 pm

climate change may not cause hotter weather for the forseeable future for some people
weather patterns are changing, parts of aus have had the coldest december for 50 years, nz has been quite cool as well with a lot of southerlies,
europe is getting more artic wind in winter causing colder temperatures....
theres more snow in nz because the air is slightly warmer in winter and carries more moisture to turn into snow.....
methane is a major grenhous gas, far stronger than CO2 and methane is increasing at a fast rate. from various sources,
melting of permafrost in cold areas is releasing methane from thawing ground. as well as methane increasing from more methane producing animals on the planet
from the land of the long white clouds...

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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby Nuts » Mon 26 Dec, 2011 6:03 pm

Good post ent. What I was getting at was that the 'argument' seemed to have stalled at a place where science has always made its mistakes. Having people believe 'anything' was definite. Nothing to do with who was right or wrong. I said I hoped he was right, in fact (for everyones sake) I hope he is wrong. If right it means there's not a hell of a lot can be done to stop global warming.

Of course that wouldn't work well for the budgets of scientists even less for those of politicians.

iirc ocean current changes would sent the uk into an ice age with global warming?, not straight forward.
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby Nuts » Mon 26 Dec, 2011 8:40 pm

not that i'd spend xmas worried about it like :)
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby photohiker » Tue 27 Dec, 2011 8:50 am

Nuts wrote:Good post ent. What I was getting at was that the 'argument' seemed to have stalled at a place where science has always made its mistakes. Having people believe 'anything' was definite.


That would be a good point if it was the way science works, but it isn't. Science is not an argument or a discussion, it's a method and a process. It involves what is called the "Hard Yards" which are rarely reported. What we are exposed to as non-scientists is generally mini sound-bytes ranging from small facts to extreme opinion in the media.

For an unknown, Science only ever tells us the most likely outcome. With man made climate change, there are many, many lines of investigation that all lead to a most likely outcome, and these studies have largely been replicated independently with the same results.

Belief is what might happen when people see the output of this body of work. It's a personal thing, not a science thing. 'Having people believe' one thing or another is not something science can control. The 'argument' largely exists in the public space.

As a member of the public, if I choose 'believe' what science tells me, and I choose to ignore the confidence intervals around the science and proclaim that what I believe is 100% and not the 90% embodied in the science, who is making an error here, me or the science? Same argument applies to me when I disbelieve the science and proclaim it as 100% wrong. This is called polarisation and it is a by-product of observing or taking part in antagonistic debate such as we observe in the media (and in our houses of parliament)

As far as Climate Change is concerned, I think the science has been sending us a pretty clear message for some time that mankind's actions are very likely changing the climate. The question is, what should we be doing about it?
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby Nuts » Tue 27 Dec, 2011 11:18 am

photohiker wrote:
Nuts wrote:Good post ent. What I was getting at was that the 'argument' seemed to have stalled at a place where science has always made its mistakes. Having people believe 'anything' was definite.


That would be a good point if it was the way science works, but it isn't.


No, your right, except when scientists cross the line and enter debates or allow their results to be quoted as 'the science', the final word. In the end, on the occasions when they are wrong, people will keep reminding us even centuries later.

Again, i probably choose to believe what you do (for the purposes of a vote) but that wasn't really my point.
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby Ent » Wed 28 Dec, 2011 12:40 pm

Hi

The trouble with science is not definitive in all aspects. It talks of statistical probabilities which sadly a large part of the population just do not get. "Give me the facts" cry means that things get missed. I find it amazing that the main "mistake" that sceptics dine out on is one where the source of data changed on one single graph. The original graph showed this but it was "dumbed" down in the never ending mindless pursuit of being concise: roll: From this "concise" version a conspiracy was built when it never existed outside someone wanting to make things simpler.

Science is not helped by the way it is funded so as in any pursuit there are scientists "bending" the rules to get funding. A study of migration suddenly becomes, "Global warming and the study of migration", and from that natural scepticism develops sadly into sarcasm. And yes more than a few scientist have been caught out.

Scientists are not trained politicians nor communicators. Very few politicians have a science background as it tends to be hard to see all points and be an effective politician. Much easier to be a head-kicker skilled in fear mongering. Many decry negative politics but sadly it has proven to be effective as people respond to fear. As tragic 9-11 was the death toll is minor compared to preventable illness deaths. Um? Spend less on security and more on health? Does not have the same edge. Oh, yes, lets do both but reduce taxes at the same time :roll:

This means a scientist is like a deer in the headlights when confronted by the glare of the media looking for sound bites and controversies. How can you make a definitive statement when the basis of your theory is derived from probabilities? You simply can not, so a person skilled in rhetoric can make a scientist look either inept or dishonest. Proper scientific debate is sold as scientist not knowing what is going on, etc.

Sadly shock jocks and simplistic journalism has driven public opinion for as long as recorded history has existed. I have a quite hope that the steadily improving education standards (most people should at least have some idea of the scientific method from high school) and people’s ability to gain information outside media moguls control is swinging the balance. But having written that there is precious little out there in a form that can be interpreted and understood. Come on CSIRO get you act together.

It took scientist generations to break the power of cigarette companies. As big as they are they are mere minions compared to energy producing and consuming industries. The fact that people still smoke suggests that with climate change the debate is not that far advanced.

Cheers
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Science?

Postby Nuts » Wed 11 Sep, 2019 1:18 pm

Dragged from the dust.

I don't think it applies to many on this forum (bushwalkers) but I can relate to this for the thoughts I had:

" We've arranged a global civilization in which most crucial elements profoundly depend on science and technology. We have also arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology" C Sagan

and that It's not necessarily something the public needed to debate or 'believe'... even studied enthusiasts with base facts and data.
Best left to the experts in science and industry, and to a responsible government.

In the intervening years I've heard & read of enough inspiring change from business but then politicians thrive on division and along came the webs. And here we are.


Anyhow, here's one small thing to do (unless you have already, or have better suggestions?) (or are an athiest ):

https://act.greenpeace.org.au/breakfree ... 910222514_
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby trekker76 » Mon 16 Sep, 2019 12:02 pm

Climate change may be correct but whole thing reaks of too much added scam to me, just off the money involved.

Grants being offered to universities and preferential placing for graduates if they incorporate climate change into their studies, even in non related fields.

The local Tree Kangaroo scientist here, I think the only one with a PHD on the animals is finding large numbers of blinded animals wandering into properties or roads. No one is sure why, but her early conclusions, 'may be linked to climate change'. Give me a break. How about checking the latest dusting and farm poison run off to those locations...

I don't mind arguing scientists, I dont like scientists climbing over each other for money. And I dont like whoever's plan it is to push this so hard.

I cam back from the 3rd world after 10 years to find the Australian and western public tribalised and polarised on bunch of heavily issues, some heavily sponsored.

LGTB vs Hetero, men vs womens salaries, black vs white, climate change vs non climate change, vaccer vs 'anti-vaccers( good heavens who even coined that ridiculous term), muslim vs christain, boomers vs millenials. What did you guys do to the country while I was gone? :D The media has even dusted off the old terms "left and right wing" and put them into the average mans mouth again. And it seems one group of positions belong to the left, and one to the right. If I like hunting, non climate change, non gender schools programs, conservative marriage I am apparently right wing, and people are suprised I may choose to support gays and pro abortion. Its called personal choice. Seems to have gone out the window.

And the money always goes to the more extreme groups in each camps, basically running on hate for the other side. I notice for example a lot of the moderate womens rights groups( I am involved with personally) are upset that about 2015 the government started shovelling all the money to the real hardliners, the man hater level types. Giving money to extremists never solves anything. . Theres only one reason you do that, to start wars, thats it.


Anyway, looks like Climate change is just another bone to chew on. Enjoy it kids. Your taxes are paying for it :D
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby slparker » Mon 16 Sep, 2019 2:09 pm

There is no field of endeavour in 2019 that is unrelated to climate change.

That is one reason why many disciplines in Universities are incorporating the science into their research. I am sure, knowing Universities like I do, that there is also a mad scramble for grants but it would be a mistake to think that this means that human induced warming is a scam.

I don't know anything about blind tree kangaroos but there are many incidences of warming affecting species world wide in unexpected ways, an example is the moose population in North America that is being decimated by ticks previous controlled by cold seasons that aren't cold any more. Animals the size of a moose with so many ticks that they die of anaemia. Unless proven otherwise, a biologist would be prudent to consider habitat and pathogen change from climate warming as part of any novel and widespread species disease in 2019.

In my field, health, I can tell you with certainty that much research is being done into the effects of climate change in Australia as it is anticipated that it will lead to widespread health effects in the next decades. An example is the increase in thunderstorms which are linked to severe asthma events - thunderstorms are predicted to be more common as the climate warms and the last severe storm in melbourne in 2016 led to 8 deaths and, what is potentially worse, tied up ambulance services and Emergency Departments across the city - it was a mass casualty event that parallels what we can expect from terrorism. All major hospitals now have a storm asthma plan. Deaths from extreme heat, fire and extreme weather will increase in the following decades - just like in Europe.

In my previous occupation, defence, the prospect of severe security effects brought about by climate change in the next decades are being taken very, very seriously. The effects of climate have been wargamed for at least the last decade - this is not theoretical; it is imminent and it is serious.

So, would you prefer that researchers didn't consider the effect to wildlife, the epidemiology of climate related diseases and the security implications of climate change to australia and just hoped for the best?

I fervently hope that my taxes are going to mitigating the effects of climate change, both for the future of Australian society but also for the Australian bush and the species within it.

As to the rest of your rant - can't help you.
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby Moondog55 » Mon 16 Sep, 2019 3:08 pm

Turfa wrote:Why do we need reams of climate data proving that it is changing... I mean it would seem to be a sensible idea to reduce emissions & reduce energy usage just for the sake of doing it.....regardless of what the climate is doing.


I think we've all wanted that, except for the people doing the polluting
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby Nuts » Tue 17 Sep, 2019 5:45 am

and apparently our government (hence the need to campaign ^^).
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby Nuts » Tue 17 Sep, 2019 6:02 am

trekker76 wrote:
The local Tree Kangaroo scientist here, I think the only one with a PHD on the animals is finding large numbers of blinded animals wandering into properties or roads. No one is sure why, but her early conclusions, 'may be linked to climate change'. Give me a break. How about checking the latest dusting and farm poison run off to those locations...




A proliferation of a certain annual toxic weed species (which can happen in the space of a season)?
The need for different or increasing pesticide /herbicide regimes?

Complex interactions (or alternatively no association and it was just a throw-away remark)?

As for the rest of your contribution.. I'll refrain from consideration , and being seen as imperfect :)
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby north-north-west » Wed 25 Sep, 2019 3:34 pm

trekker76 wrote: I notice for example a lot of the moderate womens rights groups( I am involved with personally) are upset that about 2015 the government started shovelling all the money to the real hardliners, the man hater level types.


In fact, most of the money goes to "consciousness-raising" do-nothing mobs like White Ribbon, basically for men to pat themselves on the back publicly for not publicly being *&^%$#@! to women all the time, while it's been ripped out of the services that most assisted women who were genuinely in need, such as shelters for victims of family violence.

+ what slparker said.

The world changes. People and societies learn things they didn't know before. Attitudes change. Bigotries sometimes become unacceptable.
Maybe instead of bemoaning the fact that this country doesn't do everything the way it did however many years ago, you could study material from all sides of these various issues, apply some honest critical thinking with a minimum of personal bias, and grow a little. You might even find it interesting.
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby johnrs » Wed 25 Sep, 2019 4:13 pm

A little less silent after Gretas thunderous words at the UN yesterday!
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby Lamont » Fri 27 Sep, 2019 10:36 am

johnrs wrote:A little less silent after Gretas thunderous words at the UN yesterday!
John

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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby PedroArvy » Fri 27 Sep, 2019 8:16 pm

The earth's temperature has been higher with lower CO2 levels in the past. How can that be? Because C02 is not the only contributor to the earth's climate. This is now well understood and thoroughly documented. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5hs4KVeiAU and the list of sources.
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby dalehikes » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 8:35 am

If the changing and warming of the climate doesn't severely affect our way of like then surely our wanton destruction of the natural environments will, and I think that is the main cause for concern for anyone not in denial of the human impact on the planet.

Walk in and out of rainforest edges and feel the temperature difference. Extrapolate that to the amount of forest cleared daily, and the human induced surface warming is easy to see.

Tour any freshly cleared 'parcel' of land and witness the amounts of displaced and subsequent lost wildlife and diversity, in turn affecting the local eco systems ability to rejuvenate itself.

Fly into a large asian city and see with your eyes the devastating air pollution that now plagues the health of the people that live there.

We see species going extinct and tip acknowledgement money into conserving what little hope they have left as a goodwill gesture to make us feel better about clear felling land. We never acknowledge the larger problems.

It is clear that humans are the main cause of the declining health of eco systems and the main cause of extinction rates so until there is evidence to the contrary ie: rainforests increasing and getting healthier, glaciers increasing and native flora and fauna populations increasing, I will sit firmly on the Climate Change side and expect serious action to stop it.

Will the amazon turn a corner and get back to its old self again? No, because humans will clear it quicker. End story.
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby slparker » Thu 17 Oct, 2019 5:52 pm

PedroArvy wrote:The earth's temperature has been higher with lower CO2 levels in the past. How can that be? Because C02 is not the only contributor to the earth's climate. This is now well understood and thoroughly documented. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5hs4KVeiAU and the list of sources.


There are many variables but the science is clear that CO2 in the atmosphere traps heat and that has increased since the industrial revolution. It is this new CO2 that is driving increasing temperature in the last century.

I am afraid that there isn't any doubt about it. The scientific consensus is clear. there will always be quibbles about how much and how bad but there isn't doubt any more, that hope has well and truly gone.

An analogy about the science - think of it like healthcare:

If you went to the doctor and she said you had lung cancer and then went to 99 other doctors who all said you had cancer would you believe the 99 doctors or the one doctor who said smoking was good for you?

Climate change is like cancer and the scientists are like doctors.

Will you take the chemo or keep smoking?
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby Nuts » Fri 18 Oct, 2019 10:01 am

Both, probably stuffed anyway ( :) )

Maybe there's hope in profit? I was wondering how the phase out of CFC's had appeared so seamless, no wars or devastated teens.

But seems it required a/ someone to make a huge profit b/ minimal political risk c/lack of any personal fingers lifted.
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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby wayno » Fri 18 Oct, 2019 10:02 am

i'd read the planets in the solar system were heating up more and it may be the sun that's doing it...
but on reading more, its not a consistent pattern in recent decades
from the land of the long white clouds...

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Re: Climate Change & The Deafening Silence?

Postby slparker » Fri 18 Oct, 2019 1:26 pm

wayno wrote:i'd read the planets in the solar system were heating up more and it may be the sun that's doing it...
but on reading more, its not a consistent pattern in recent decades


Could be referring to this:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn ... rming-too/
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