That Mad Belgian

[north-north-west]

Blimey, he's three quarters of the way to Erskine Pt already. Way to go, boyo!

[wildwanderer]

Did he hoist a sail ? He is really flying.

Is the water tidal or is his speed just due to wind?

[ILUVSWTAS]

Did he hoist a sail ? He is really flying.

Is the water tidal or is his speed just due to wind?

It is a fresh water lake.... very windy today.

[GPSGuided]

Was he paddling in the dark? He has dare!

[Doonish]

He paddled at night on King William too.

Scotts Peak weather observations say he's getting a NNE wind at 30-35 km/h, so provided he's happy in that, it's just about ideal for coasting where he's going. For the time being, anyway.

[twoheadedtasmanian]

How steep is the lake edge? Cliff or beach? Hard to tell on the satellite image.

[wildwanderer]

Here are some tassie lake webcams to give a bit of a rough idea of the conditions. Unfortunately not from the lake he is paddling on though.
https://anglersalliance.org.au/tasmania ... s-webcams/

EDIT - Looks like he has changed direction and trying to head into shore.

[north-north-west]

How steep is the lake edge? Cliff or beach? Hard to tell on the satellite image.

Depends on the water level, but around those headlands it does tend to be steepish. He may have trouble finding somewhere to pull out. The white you can see on the sat images is bare rock, not sandy beaches.

[jmac]

@Nick Monk,

Nick I tried to send you a PM earlier today. Could you please let me know if you received it? Cheers, John

[jmac]

Looks like he's camping before the gap. Hope he has a comfortable night.

[Guido]

Looks like he's camping before the gap. Hope he has a comfortable night.

I hope so too. But it looks like he's camping on the rocks tonight!
Great distance today, good to see him making decent progress.

Images from his InReach and an old one for comparison, with a lower water level.

[Overlandman]

Day 39
11 Sept. Woke up with pain & issue in my right eye. Tried to solve the problem for hours, without success. Doc in Hobart. Got out of the forest, then easy on to the lake. Not sure if it's a puncture after all that bushbashing!
but hey: raft tested successfully! No more supper food. 3 breakfast rations left. 1 chocolate bar, 1.3kg nuts, 1kg hemp seeds, 30 clifbars. It is now a race before 21 Sept.

[GPSGuided]

That’s not a lot of food for 10 days!

[mikeb]

Looks like McPartlan’s Pass canal could be tricky - Lake Pedder is only half a metre down from full and Hydro Tas has been constantly drawing water off it to supplement Gordon in recent weeks:
https://www.hydro.com.au/docs/default-s ... PEDDER.pdf

[NickMonk]

Today's big question: will he risk being on the lake in this wind? I hope not, but getting to Cockle Creek in 10 days from this point doesn't look particularly realistic to me, whether he goes on the lake today or not. Maybe if you were super fit with tons of food and were just starting out?

[mikeb]

Looks windy out there. Wonder if he’ll wait until the afternoon to start paddling...
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT21037.shtml

[doogs]

Today's big question: will he risk being on the lake in this wind? I hope not, but getting to Cockle Creek in 10 days from this point doesn't look particularly realistic to me, whether he goes on the lake today or not.

I can't see him not moving today..he hasn't not moved on yet and he's had some pretty *&%$#! weather along his journey.

[MrWalker]

Looks windy out there. Wonder if he’ll wait until the afternoon to start paddling...
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT21037.shtml

According to Windy.com the winds will be strong there for a while, but there is a calm period coming up - from 8pm Friday to 7am Saturday.

Louis had commented at one stage about knowing that August is the rainiest month in Tasmania. I wonder if he knew that September is the windiest month.

[wildwanderer]

That’s not a lot of food for 10 days!

At least on the raft he will hopefully burn a lot less calories than hauling a 30kg+ rucksack through scrub.

Very rough armchair calculations.

30 cliff bar = aprox 7650 calories
1 kg of hemp seeds = aprox 5850 calories.
1.3 of nuts (assume mixed) = aprox 7891 calories.

= 21,391 calories
/ 10 days 2139 calories per day.
/ 12 days 1782 calories per day.

Plus he has 3 breakfast rations and a chocolate bar.

Suggested calorie per day for average man is 2000-2500 per day to maintain current weight.

If hadn’t just done 40 days of massive exercise and was planning to sit on the lounge for next 10 days then id say he has just enough.

So its going to be tough for him with only this amount of food but as we have seen Louis is not an ordinary person. Go Louis!

[bushwalker zane]

He's off and paddling! Already about 2km in for the day in only half an hour

[Doonish]

If he keeps this up - and there are no issues at the canal - he'll be at Scott's Peak this evening. Provided the eye is okay, it's totally doable from here.

I mean sure, his body is going to be smashed and undernourished, but totally doable.

[Doonish]

But jeez, look at the wind at Scott's Peak...

[doogs]

looks like he's lost the protection of being on the leeward side of the Junction Range..

[north-north-west]

You can't paddle up McPartlans. First, the canal does not reach Gordon directly; the last two to three km is a natural creek bed, narrow, rocky and occasionally blocked by scrub. Second, the water flow right now would make trying to paddle a packraft up it a bit like trying to push a jet backwards when it's taxiing down the runway. And there's a perfectly good vehicle track running along the canal anyway, so why try?
Personally, in these conditions, I would paddle further east and pick up the old forestry roads that link with the transmission line access tracks. It means walking a few km further, but that won't be hard on the tracks.

Wind, while strong, is NW. That's a good direction for him while he's in the Gordon impoundment. It won't be nice on Pedder, however.

[Azza]

There are also some 4wd tracks north of the canal visible on the list / google satellite connecting the lake shore with the canal.
He is probably going to get blown away from there though.

If he can get to Scotts Peak without burning too many more days you could probably struggle through on his limited food supplies.
Ideally I guess you want 8-10 days from Scotts Peak to Cockle Creek, if your in reasonable condition.....

[north-north-west]

There are also some 4wd tracks north of the canal visible on the list / google satellite connecting the lake shore with the canal.

I tried walking them last year. I think they don't actually connect to the access track on that side of the canal, despite what the maps and aerial photos suggest, although it may be only a narrow section of scrub separating them.

If the wind was right, he could put the packraft in at Farrell Point and paddle all the way to Melaleuca. Be easier and quicker (and probably drier if the track's anything like when we walked out from Claytons).

[mikeb]

If anyone in Hobart is still planning to a welcoming reception / eye clinic at McPartlans then they'd better get going - if he maintains his current pace then he'll be there in a couple of hours.

[jmac]

inReach Message 12:35PM: "Indeed too dangerous to paddle. Lucky could battle and reach land. Now i camp and wait afternoon."

[north-north-west]

Yeah, he's on one of those islets in Calder Reach. Nice spot.

[mikeb]

Note wind speeds at Scott's Peak have dropped by 20-30km/h from earlier this afternoon ( http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT60801 ... 5958.shtml ) and he has now targeted the canal...