Son of a Beach wrote:I noted with interest that according to the expert meteorologist from the BOM, lightning strikes have probably not increased, but our ability to detect them has.
Hmmm .... thanks for raising this Nik. I heard the same, and meant to comment earlier. (It seems others have been busy while I prepared my response!)
While our ability to detect lightning strikes has increased, I have heard and read a contrary analysis of dry lightning frequency, from DPIPWE fire management and botany staff, (prepared in 2007, published in 2010*). They found that while dry lightning was very rare in the 20th century - and fire patterns would indicate earlier centuries too - there was a marked increase from about 2003 onwards. However the frequency in the last few years is off the chart.
I'm not a meteorologist, but have studied climatology. Put these things together:
1) Air temperatures over mainland Australia are reaching new record highs most years
2) Ocean temperatures are warming markedly too
3) Drier, warmer weather, with thunder cells embedded, is drifting across Tasmania from a super-heated mainland.
4) Many of these cells don't have much rain associated with them.
The predictable result is an increase in lightning-ignited wildfires. The above report concluded, even in 2007, that
"The incidence of lightning ignitions causing wildfires in south-west Tasmania is increasing. Climate change forecasts suggest this trend is likely to continue.
Oh brother, has that come to pass! So I think it's squibbing it to say that this is due to better detection, and not to talk about climate change.
It seems to me this is a canary-in-the-coalmine dropping off its perch right before our eyes. Doing nothing doesn't seem a smart response. And especially when our irreplaceable fire-sensitive species are being lost forever.
cheers
Peter
* "Buttongrass Moorland Management Workshop": Nature Conservation Report 10/4, DPIPWE, edited by Jayne Balmer