Bushfire season 2019-2020

[Warin]

Hopefully they can lease some more air assets from the northern hemisphere quickly.

Being a profit making organisation the other assets being 'unused' may well be stripped for maintenance. Even if not takes time to get the aircrews back and get the aircraft over here. Would not expect them till after Xmass at the earliest.

------------
Another factor:
They charge for the hours flown. As this year they have flown many more hours than in past seasons .. they could be taking more money just to keep what 'we' have now flying for the rest of the season?

[Neo]

Very likely that these fire areas will continue to smoulder and reignite through until autumn 2020.

The last month, heaps have doubled in a day or two and then joined up with others in the week.

Lets hope the few unburnt parts of NSW dont light up during this summer.

[mandragara]

This is another website you guys might find useful: https://eos.com/landviewer/?lat=-33.174 ... 88141&z=10

It lets you view fairly high resolution satellite imagery. What's of interest is that you can look at different combinations of EM bands.

For example there is a band combination that highlights areas with chlorophyll activity, so you can see what areas of bush have been burnt and not burnt.

Below is one of the basalt rainforest peaks (Coriaday) in the Wollemi. The whole area has burnt but you can see the rainforest is still OK on the peak and in the creeks. Red=more chlorophyll activity

You need to make a free account to get access to the higher zoom levels.

Last edited by mandragara on Thu 12 Dec, 2019 10:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[Neo]

Wow that's cool info.

I've been wondering about an image overlay that shows areas that have burnt in the last two decades. I'd go for a different translucent color each season. Those areas that overlap would be a mixed pallette like paintbrush colours mixed together, tending to purple or brown.

That would show the overlaps and give an indication of how flora has or has not had time to recover or reproduce.

[Hughmac]

I live near the northern end of Morton NP, and I've also had my fingers crossed that it remains free of fire. Saying that, it hasn't burnt for about 25 years, so has had plenty of time for the plant community to establish a new seed bank. My biggest concern over these fires is that the weather has changed so much that some plant communities will never recover to their former diversity. If you look at Moss Vale's rainfall records (around 150 years worth), the last 20 years has seen a 25% decline over the long term average. In combination with increasing temperatures it can't help but impact existing plant communities, even without the impact of the fires.

[wildwanderer]

Visible on the RFS map. https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-informa ... es-near-me

Large containment lines starting to ring greater Sydney and the blue mountains. Glad the cooler weather has made this possible. The scale of the containment lines showcases the magnitude of the concern.

[wildwanderer]

The Gospers Mountain fire is now in the Grose Valley.
https://twitter.com/NSWRFS/status/1206364142770294789



At its current rate of advance it will be impacting Mount Victoria, Blackheath, Katoomba and other mountain towns along the great western highway within the week or sooner.

[goanna]

I notice Mt Solitary is on fire for the second time in about six months following an earlier prescribed burn. Two fires at such a short interval present a real risk to the plant community affected. The seed bank which will have germinated after the first fire will be destroyed before being able to reproduce the next generation, potentially eliminating some species from the community.

This makes me wonder what benefit the 'prescribed' burns have been.

[LachlanB]

Hmmm.. that looks suspiciously like an out of control Hazard Reduction burn? But whatever it is, it's terrible that it's heading back down into the Grose!

[Neo]

Yeah it did, part of Bells Line was closed for the operation.

Just heard on the radio the backburn did get away from them.

Also looks like the Kanangra fire will link up to the Ruined Castle fire. The whole/remaining GBM could be affected with next weeks weather! Also creeping into Morton

[wildwanderer]

Awful photos taken from Govetts Leap, Blackheath. These were shot yesterday. https://twitter.com/LJCharleston/status ... 4260476928

Meanwhile I heard scomo jetted off to Hawaii today for a holiday. Cheers mate..

EDIT. Emergency warning out for Gosphers Mtn fire. Crossed wolgan road near ben bullen state forrest. Hope its not close to the Mount Piper Power station

[Huntsman247]

Looks like The Castle is going up in flames tonight or tomorrow morning

[jonnosan]

This site overlays the RFS Fire's Near Me fireground map plus hotspot data from satellites on top of a pretty decent topo - http://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewe ... 5,-33.7738

[insect_eater]

Hi All,

I've been watching the Currowan fire creep north towards The Castle for the last couple of weeks. It was dramatically helped a week ago by an arsonist driving about 30km north from the northern edge to the Clyde River, lighting up both sides of the road along the way.

Today the fires near me (https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-informa ... es-near-me ) map shows the fire halfway up the slope between Yadboro River and The Castle, so it likely the fire will reach The Castle and monolith valley today, and continue to burn north through the rest of the park. This could be quick (less than a week) or slow (weeks - months) depending on weather. It would take several days of decent rain to extinguish the fire.

[wildwanderer]

Seems the fires are already impacting the castle. From satellite heat sensors.

The dark red hotspots most recent sat pass (under an hour ago). The orange ones from previous sat pass (6-24 hours ago)

[goanna]

Hi All,

I've been watching the Currowan fire creep north towards The Castle for the last couple of weeks. It was dramatically helped a week ago by an arsonist driving about 30km north from the northern edge to the Clyde River, lighting up both sides of the road along the way.

Do you have a source that it was arson? I took the fires along the road to be an attempted backburn. The whole area has been closed to the public for quite a while.

[michael_p]

This site overlays the RFS Fire's Near Me fireground map plus hotspot data from satellites on top of a pretty decent topo - http://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewe ... 5,-33.7738

Thanks Jonnosan, that is a great map for keeping track of how the fires are progressing.

[insect_eater]

Do you have a source that it was arson? I took the fires along the road to be an attempted backburn. The whole area has been closed to the public for quite a while.

There was a backburn off the kings highway on the SW flank at that time that you probably saw, but I understand that nothing was lit on this edge. It was lit on both sides of the road, precluding any effect as a backburn.

[Huntsman247]

Lots of 'organic handholds' will be lost. Scrambling in the Budawangs from now on will be a lot more 'interesting' and make you look like a chimney cleaner for a while. Sad day today for the Budawangs.

[wildwanderer]

Potential for a very tough day around the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area and nearby towns.

NSW Government just invoked a State of Emergency.

Latest hotspot maps showing the Gospers Mtn fire close to the Piper and Wallerawang power stations and has fire about to cross the Grose River.
(Click on the pictures for a sharper image)

[Warin]

I think fire fighting activity will be around the power station and coal mine..

the grose valley will burn.

I'll wait for winter before walking it again. Be interesting to see the changes.

[LachlanB]

The Currowan fire has also well and truly escaped into the bulk of the Budawangs. Out of control fire front rapidly spreading north across almost the entire plateau. This is going to be devastating for the vegetation on the Corang Plateau, it was still recovering from the 2013 fire.

Everything is burning

[Warin]

Total area burnt in NSW for this fire season is now 2.7million hectares ...
(Data from The Guardian)

[wildwanderer]

This is a nightmare.

In its current direction the Green Wattle Fire is heading towards the last remaining green belt around greater Sydney, the Nepean - Dharawal area.

[cammokazee]

Hi All,

I've been watching the Currowan fire creep north towards The Castle for the last couple of weeks. It was dramatically helped a week ago by an arsonist driving about 30km north from the northern edge to the Clyde River, lighting up both sides of the road along the way.

Do you have a source that it was arson? I took the fires along the road to be an attempted backburn. The whole area has been closed to the public for quite a while.

I live & work around the Batemans Bay area, and a little birdy (who's nest is in the local RFS) told me that it weren't no backburn up in that Yadboro area & there weren't no lightning strikes either.
And yes these areas are closed atm. But, that does not always stop some people and there are plenty of tracks around there too you know.

Can't see how this fire won't link up with the one that started at Tianjara yesterday which was also very suspicious, apparently. BTW another fire that started out the back of Maloney's Beach the other week was also 'suspicious'. Apparently an unidentified person on a bike was seen exiting the track from where smoke was seen shortly after. Unfortunately l guess many fires remain suspicious unless someone is caught.

imo convicted arsonists (including irresponsible power company execs) should be burnt alive as punishment! OUCH

[potato]

I notice Mt Solitary is on fire for the second time in about six months following an earlier prescribed burn. Two fires at such a short interval present a real risk to the plant community affected. The seed bank which will have germinated after the first fire will be destroyed before being able to reproduce the next generation, potentially eliminating some species from the community.

This makes me wonder what benefit the 'prescribed' burns have been.

Very little benefit at all... if any.

Prescribed burns are mainly about egos and politics.

[Neo]

Read this last night. Many variables, but when it is extra hot and dry there is not really anything anyone can do...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-20/ ... s/11817336

[potato]

What a terrible season this has turned out to be. I'm currently stuck in Ulladulla NSW with many others in a similar situation due to fires blocking the highway in the north and south. The conditions in the town are rather pleasant if you don't mind the smoke. The glow from the Budawangs however is something else. I have been around fires for most of my working life but this season is extraordinarily.

Stay safe everyone.

[potato]

Read this last night. Many variables, but when it is extra hot and dry there is not really anything anyone can do...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-20/ ... s/11817336

That's an excellent article. I can't believe (We'll I'm not as I've seen it many times before) some of the fire breaks they have put in place in the south coast. The Currowan fire jumped the Clyde River and then the Pricncess Hey and the still think a destructive fire break two dozers wide will stop a fire! It's crazy. I shudder when I see a dozer on the back of a truck heading to a fire. It's pointless destruction in a continuously forested landscape.

[michael_p]

Image in this tweet shows the Budawangs and Tianjara fires: https://twitter.com/tonyveco/status/1208305346474852352. Not looking good and could spread into Ettrema as well. Second image in tweet show fires closer to Sydney.

And, where does all the smoke go: https://twitter.com/m_parrington/status ... 8860630017

Last edited by michael_p on Sun 22 Dec, 2019 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.