COVID-19 - General discussion

[Lophophaps]

5000 doctors have made a desperate plea for a nationwide lockdown
https://www.theage.com.au/national/thou ... 54dgy.html

[Warin]

NT, Tas, WA and ? others ...

Anyone traveling to these places are required to self-isolate for 14 days. Unless they have some exemption (transport worker, medico, etc).

So your not banned from traveling to there .. but have to self-isolate for 14 days.

WA is proposing placing the same restrictions on travel between regions ...
I expect other places will follow at some later time.

[Rai]

5000 doctors have made a desperate plea for a nationwide lockdown
https://www.theage.com.au/national/thou ... 54dgy.html

Can't help but think how much our lives are going to be affected by the response to Covid-19 risk rather than the virus itself. Several news sites have recently reported the number of ICU beds available in each State. Tasmania has 50. How awful it would be for a medical professional when the 50 beds are occupied and the 51st patient turns up. So the doctors' advice is understandable. But Authorities have to manage the risk, and medical advice is just one part of risk management. Just my 2c worth.

[Gadgetgeek]

The faster we get it locked down, the faster we get to "surveillance mode" hopefully then the lock-downs are shorter, and more targeted. So hopefully within six weeks we can get to a little normal, just being more careful. Reality is that I have no idea what the current guidelines are for my area or what I should be, or not be doing. I'm making my best educated choices, but I have no way to know how close to right or wrong I am.

[Neo]

Moondog I wasn't thinking of the grey nomads, they must be in the tens of thousands. I see many folk who I can only assume live with vehicle due to choice, mental health, loss of rental or mortgage, breakups or who knows why.

Regarding the latest virus I guess I'm in the diligaf half, although I prefer 'curious observer'. I'm there at the end of the world party you speak of, relaxing on the lounge enjoying the funk music.

Perhaps mother nature is finally saying FU. Perhaps the virus was intentionally released in a travel and production center of the world. Perfectly executed, to curb mankind by natural means.

Go bushwalk Bobcrusader if you desire. You are a minority.
Love from Neo

[Zapruda]

I’m hearing murmurs of a proper nationwide lockdown come Thursday or Friday.

[Warin]

Authorities have to manage the risk, and medical advice is just one part of risk management.

If I have it right, modeling suggests if 'we' did nothing, by August;

80% of the population would have been infected,
5,000+ doctors and nurses would be dead,
45,000+ other people would be dead.

[bobcrusader]

Thanks for all the responses! I was genuinely not sure on how the bushwalking community would respond - hence the question. We decided to not go - mainly because of the stretched emergency services comments, but also because my 15YO daughter has come down with chest pain and breathing difficulties. They won't test her, because she didn't fit the stupid criteria, but she had a chest x-ray today. Unexplained pneumonia then qualifies for a test. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

PS I have enough fuel capacity to drive to the trailhead and back without needing to talk to another human, so apart from the whole 'if something went wrong requiring rescue' part, I still considered it very low risk from a coronavirus perspective. I'm also familiar with Murphy's Law...

[slparker]

Authorities have to manage the risk, and medical advice is just one part of risk management.

If I have it right, modeling suggests if 'we' did nothing, by August;

80% of the population would have been infected,
5,000+ doctors and nurses would be dead,
45,000+ other people would be dead.

For those on the forum expressing a glib, cavalier or 'dilligaf' attitude - there are clinicians on this forum who are likely to be up to their necks in it when the *&%$#! hits the fan in a month or so. So thanks for showing your true colours.

[Neo]

We mostly treat symptoms while the body heals itself.

Many dedicated people help the body of others.

No I'm not really a peopleperson, look at the state of the world. I'm a 76 model and much disappointingly a part of it all.

How good is Aussie flora though! And the critters. The rocks and hills.

[Baeng72]

Thanks for all the responses! I was genuinely not sure on how the bushwalking community would respond - hence the question. We decided to not go - mainly because of the stretched emergency services comments, but also because my 15YO daughter has come down with chest pain and breathing difficulties. They won't test her, because she didn't fit the stupid criteria, but she had a chest x-ray today. Unexplained pneumonia then qualifies for a test. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

PS I have enough fuel capacity to drive to the trailhead and back without needing to talk to another human, so apart from the whole 'if something went wrong requiring rescue' part, I still considered it very low risk from a coronavirus perspective. I'm also familiar with Murphy's Law...

I hope everything turns out OK for your daughter.

[Lophophaps]

Stay at work.png (179.88 KiB) Viewed 20672 times

[Baeng72]

Just a quick point on psychology of persuasion, don't harangue, or throw about tendentious epithets like 'dilligaf'.
It might bring a warm rush of outrage, which seems to fuel most of social media.
But how many times have you changed your mind after someone has called you a pejorative name or epithet?

[Kuhr]

I have another point of view on this. How many in the community currently have a number of niggling injuries they have been ignoring for a while and continue to walk hoping they'll resolve themselves (me, both knees now).

How many know they should give those injuries a chance to heal but have been too stubborn to do so (me).

Quarantine has an upside. Now is the time to let those niggling injuries heal, and do the right thing and stay at home for the good of your fellow Australians as well as yourself and your loved ones.

Nature is still going to be there in a few months.

[Baeng72]

I think I'm yelling into the wind on this.
I'll refrain from name calling.

What the doctors request, about staying home, is very important.
No denying it, I'll be doing it. Because I can.
I'm in a high-risk category, nodes in lungs, seveal 'osis' diseases. All good fun.

But where something important is lost, is in the very real danger that people will suffer depression and suicide because of loss of work and ability to move to places that would help their mental health and/or be with family.
The model above about doing nothing, killing all those people, would have a mirror image about doing something, but we're not shown that because mental health isn't considered an illness.

It's just do your duty.

There's been no announcement from the Government about boosting mental health funding and helping people out.
The quasi (or real) lockdown will be behind a big increase in domestic violence and suicide.

I can see why people feel so strongly about going to the bush, seeing family, it's not just cavalier or 'dilligaf', though surely there is some of that.

I think reasoning with people, seeing if there are alternates, maybe accepting that some will travel, so encourage harm minimization, is better than demanding what will be impossible for some.

Anyway, I think I've said too much and I doubt I'll convince those who are sure of their position.

[Moondog55]

Part of the problem is being told what to do by people we simply don't trust and don't believe; politicians and the police; another part of the problem is we people being contrary.

[MrWalker]

There is some modelling shown on the ABC website that shows that at least 80% of the population must avoid contact with anyone outside their family to get the disease transmission rate down.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-stay-home-chart/12084144

The headline says 8 out of 10 Aussies must "stay home". But the model is really looking at 80% avoiding contact with others. If you can avoid contact by going out in the bush for days or weeks then you will not be passing on the disease or catching it.

If the laws change to make "stay at home" compulsory as the have in the UK, then I'll stay at home. But if we are permitted to go outside and get some fresh air, then I'll do that, where I can without interacting with others.

[slparker]

The ABC article describes it well.

the 'stay home' pertains to social contact and it is true that bushwalking itself constitutes a low contact activity if everything goes well. But, for the reasons I stated earlier, don't travel hundreds of km to NE Victoria, or any other region with limited health resources, to go bushwalking because you 'have to'. You are putting other people at risk whatever spin you want to put on it.

Perhaps learn to love the areas within a short distance from your home in line with the intent of the health and exercise advice.

[ofuros]

Anybody can be infected, but it seems the virus mostly kills the elderly & the elderly with pre-existing medical conditions...

Picture, everyone was at risk dying from the virus, infants, children, teens, 20yo's 30yo's, 40, 50, 60yo's...would I still go Bushwalking just because I feel the need ?

Probably not the best time to go bush... it's a short term sacrifice for our grandads & grannies, minimise the spread.

Besides, what am I going to take to eat, the hoarders keep cleaning out the supermarket shelves of rice, pasta & cup-a-soups.

Last edited by ofuros on Wed 25 Mar, 2020 11:10 am, edited 3 times in total.

[FreeBird122020]

I am a fence sitter on this one. A lot of forum members need their wild time to stay well. Becoming shut- in within a week would have mental health issues for many.
I can not see much wrong, for now, with Hobartians getting about on the Domain or the cable car free Mountain. Launcestonians have the Gorge and Trevallyn Dam to feel free. Stay safe and close to home seems reasonable for now, for those not required to self-isolate. If it is still legal to do the Overland Track or Three Capes Walk, don't. As for epic walks, if no one is at home depending on your help, who am I to say? Yes, it may lead to unnecessary loading on emergency services.

I looked up some things on risk taking by young men and teenagers that I think is pertinent to controlling COVID-19. Herbert Hoover said something like "Older men declare war. But it is the youth that must fight and die."
Now the youth are still the risk takers, and for the most part older people are doing the dying.

[Moondog55]

Lets all dream great bushwalking dreams and plan out our next walks and camps in great detail.
Lets spend some time getting all our gear in order [ HINT Ted do this. Do this now] repair any broken or worn gear. Think about spending the :"Stimulus package": wisely and locally.
Learn to sew and make stuff
Bunnings is still open and I need a new sewing table in the shed and the big new base camp tent needs a stove jack. What ever I do I will try not to get infected if I haven't already had it and not infect anybody else if I do get the bug.
But I still don't trust our figureheads in government at all

[potato]

Anybody can be infected, but it seems the virus mostly kills the elderly & the elderly with pre-existing medical conditions...

Picture, everyone was at risk dying from the virus, infants, children, teens, 20yo's 30yo's, 40, 50, 60yo's...would I still go Bushwalking just because I feel the need ?

Probably not the best time to go bush... it's a short term sacrifice for our aging population.

I tend to agree with this but the data is showing that people of all ages are at some level risk - it's a bit of a lottery. Staying home is the best way of limiting the spread.

People should just stay home and not express their views on why they should go for a walk on a public forum - it will only encourage others to think that their personal needs are more important than the greater population.

[peregrinator]

Stay at work.png

While we debate this topic -- and given its nature, none of us can offer proof one way or the other -- it's interesting to note that, with only a few exceptions, you and I remain anonymous on this forum.

If you scroll up a few posts, you'll see that Dr Ahmed Rabea's name is on his heart. And he is not alone in presenting his message:

https://www.upworthy.com/doctors-nurses-say-stay-home

The second photograph in Lophophaps' post is of Dr. Gee Teak Sheng from Pantai Hospital In Penang:

https://junkee.com/stay-home-coronavirus/247718

I cannot deny the persuasiveness of their suggestion. I thank Lophophaps for the pictures.

Last edited by peregrinator on Wed 25 Mar, 2020 1:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[crollsurf]

The current Government stance, as of last night, is that you can go bushwalking by yourself, with 1 other person, or as a family group. You can jog on the street, you can take your dog for a walk but keep it local and limit travel and practice social distancing.

I respect the medical profession and am staying at home as much as possible. But if our society was run by medics, we'd all be forced to live very monastic lives. Even Bread is considered bad for you, so I don't think we'd be able to eat Bread, let alone butter or margarine. Imagine going to Jail for a Ham and Cheese sandwich

[peregrinator]

. . . if our society was run by medics . . .

It's not.

[Moondog55]

It becomes much more real when people you know of or are acquainted with die.
A well respected member of another forum I belong to just died of complications associated with this illness, he was younger than I am and probably fitter and was a healthy non-smoker He was in the USA

[bobcrusader]

Parks Vic are closing campsites now. Situation changes everyday - the kids were still in school when I first posted!

[michael_p]

Up to date NSW public health orders can be seen here: https://preview.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/pub ... gatherings

[Warin]

Australian National Botanic Gardens in Canberra, Booderee National Park in Jervis Bay, Kakadu and Uluru to close.

Probably means state parks will close too, though that may take some time ... think I'll go for a last walk in my local early tomorrow. Hopefully it will be raining to keep others from going.

[CBee]

Quicker they take all the possible measures and quicker we get over this. No point in waiting to see what's going to happen tomorrow or next week and act accordingly. Whatever figures we see today, they have been formed probably two weeks ago. Once things are in control of health system, we'll start to get our things back a little at the time. Under estimate now this virus even if numbers are not as scary as other countries, IMO is a big mistake without a vaccine or some solid cure in hand...