COVID-19 - General discussion

[Son of a Beach]

Morrison is now hinting he'll make the app compulsory.

Really? Can you link to that please?

[slparker]

Does anyone actually believe that without a vaccine eradication is even possible?

No, it isn't possible to eradicate a virus without a vaccine or, if it is, it has never been achieved.

Although global eradication isn't possible, localised eradication should be possible in some areas. Potentially, NZ may be able to eradicated it for their entire country. Too early to tell, and still a very ambitious goal.

Even if local eradication is achieved, keeping it out then becomes a huge challenge. Even if you keep all tourists out, planes and ships crewed by infected people would still be involved in international trade. There are few countries or regions which can get by without such trade these days.

Tasmania would have had a very good chance of keeping it out, but our government was too slow to "close" the borders. If Tasmania had implemented even stricter measures early enough, we could all be back to normal operation by now, with a COVID-19 free state (apart from maintaining super-strict border control measures). Our economy would have been on the road to recover by now, and most people would have their jobs back by now.

I think that you're right. Maintaining the state of being virus free would be pretty hard to achieve in a global economy but technically possible. perhaps that is NZ's goal.

[Baeng72]

Tasmania would have had a very good chance of keeping it out, but our government was too slow to "close" the borders. If Tasmania had implemented even stricter measures early enough (as had been recommended by some people), we could all be back to normal operation by now, with a COVID-19 free state (apart from maintaining super-strict border control measures). Our economy would have been on the road to recover by now, and most people (outside the tourism industry) would have their jobs back by now.

I wonder how Tasmania's economy could be said to be on the road to recovery if external tourism is dead, as would be the case with super-strict border control measures.

[Baeng72]

Morrison is now hinting he'll make the app compulsory.

Really? Can you link to that please?

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... st-updates
Asked in that same interview whether or not he would make downloading the tracing app, and traveling with phones, mandatory, Scott Morrison says:

My preference is not to do that, my preference is to give Australians the go of getting it right.

... I don’t want to be drawn on that [making it mandatory], I want to give Australians the opportunity to get it right. That is my objective, that is my Plan A and I really want Plan A to work.

It starts with 'I don't want to....' then an outbreak occurs, and 'well, my hand was forced'. Or maybe I woke up grumpy (and paranoide) today?

[Baeng72]

A more pressing problem is how to get rid of the wet markets scattered around Wuhan, but not exclusively in Wuhan. My niece, visiting the region last year, described two she perused as "cesspits of cruelty and squalor".

Wet Markets is an ambiguous term. Vic. Market in Elizabeth street Melbourne is a wet market. It has fruit, vegies, meat.
It's the illegal trade in wildlife for bushmeat, illegal pets, Chinese 'medicine', and *&%$#! like that which is the issue.

[Walk_fat boy_walk]

Saw an interesting post doing the rounds along the lines that easing restrictions due to a flattening curve would be analogous to taking the parachute off after its slowed the rate of descent.

[Biggles]

A more pressing problem is how to get rid of the wet markets scattered around Wuhan, but not exclusively in Wuhan. My niece, visiting the region last year, described two she perused as "cesspits of cruelty and squalor".

Wet Markets is an ambiguous term. Vic. Market in Elizabeth street Melbourne is a wet market. It has fruit, vegies, meat.
It's the illegal trade in wildlife for bushmeat, illegal pets, Chinese 'medicine', and *&%$#! like that which is the issue.

I have never been into to Queen Victoria Market, though I learnt to swim at the Melbourne City Baths!
Quite a few Chinese visitors to the NT have referred to the Mindil and Parap markets (Darwin) as "wet". They definitely are not! Except when the monsoon strikes...

[Son of a Beach]

Tasmania would have had a very good chance of keeping it out, but our government was too slow to "close" the borders. If Tasmania had implemented even stricter measures early enough (as had been recommended by some people), we could all be back to normal operation by now, with a COVID-19 free state (apart from maintaining super-strict border control measures). Our economy would have been on the road to recover by now, and most people (outside the tourism industry) would have their jobs back by now.

I wonder how Tasmania's economy could be said to be on the road to recovery if external tourism is dead, as would be the case with super-strict border control measures.

Yes, OK, poor choice of words on my part, but hopefully you can see what the point actually was. Ie, that many people would be back at work, the economy would be somewhat better off, people would not have to work from home, and... most importantly... there would be nothing to stop us bushwalking. For most Tasmanians, life would have been back to normal by now.

[Son of a Beach]

Morrison is now hinting he'll make the app compulsory.

Really? Can you link to that please?

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... st-updates
Asked in that same interview whether or not he would make downloading the tracing app, and traveling with phones, mandatory, Scott Morrison says:

My preference is not to do that, my preference is to give Australians the go of getting it right.

... I don’t want to be drawn on that [making it mandatory], I want to give Australians the opportunity to get it right. That is my objective, that is my Plan A and I really want Plan A to work.

It starts with 'I don't want to....' then an outbreak occurs, and 'well, my hand was forced'. Or maybe I woke up grumpy (and paranoide) today?

Thank you. I agree that would be disturbing.

I don't think he'd have much chance of getting that passed, even if he did make such a decision. But I've been wrong before. Once. Or twice.

[Warin]

I wonder how Tasmania's economy could be said to be on the road to recovery if external tourism is dead, as would be the case with super-strict border control measures.

Yes, OK, poor choice of words on my part, but hopefully you can see what the point actually was. Ie, that many people would be back at work, the economy would be somewhat better off, people would not have to work from home, and... most importantly... there would be nothing to stop us bushwalking. For most Tasmanians, life would have been back to normal by now.

Tourism directly contributes $1.49 billion or about 4.9 per cent to Tasmania's Gross Product. Tourism directly and indirectly supports around 42 000 jobs in Tasmania or about 17.2 per cent of total Tasmanian employment - higher than the national average and the highest in the country.

https://www.tourismtasmania.com.au/industry/facts

Most of the tourist who do accommodation will not be locals... so let us say 1 in 8 people who were employed in Tassie are out of a job due to lack of tourists. That has a flow on effect to others. Not quite 'normal'.

[Aardvark]

Ha. Even if they can somehow make it compulsory to have some app on a phone, they've got buckleys chance of getting me to be in the habit of going everywhere with a phone.
Even under the threat of gaol, i doubt i could comply.

[Son of a Beach]

I wonder how Tasmania's economy could be said to be on the road to recovery if external tourism is dead, as would be the case with super-strict border control measures.

Yes, OK, poor choice of words on my part, but hopefully you can see what the point actually was. Ie, that many people would be back at work, the economy would be somewhat better off, people would not have to work from home, and... most importantly... there would be nothing to stop us bushwalking. For most Tasmanians, life would have been back to normal by now.

Tourism directly contributes $1.49 billion or about 4.9 per cent to Tasmania's Gross Product. Tourism directly and indirectly supports around 42 000 jobs in Tasmania or about 17.2 per cent of total Tasmanian employment - higher than the national average and the highest in the country.

https://www.tourismtasmania.com.au/industry/facts

Most of the tourist who do accommodation will not be locals... so let us say 1 in 8 people who were employed in Tassie are out of a job due to lack of tourists. That has a flow on effect to others. Not quite 'normal'.

Sorry... I'm clearly doing a terrible job of explaining myself. I was trying to say that things could have been a lot better than they currently are for many Tasmanians (I still consider 7 out of 8 to be "most", but maybe others do not?) - and in my earlier post, I explicitly mentioned the exception of those in the the tourism industry. (It's a bit beside the point, but that 1 out of 8 number sounds a little fishy to me. I don't personally know anybody who works in the tourism industry, either directly or obviously indirectly. Although it could just be that I don't have any social life.) I don't plan to quibble over the definition of "normal" or "most" so should have avoided those words which some people seem to be focused on.

But I think that some people are getting hum up on the technicalities of my poor wording and are missing the point that I'm trying (very poorly) to make. I'm sure it's my fault for being terrible at explaining it. I will try again... The point was simply that things could have been a lot better in Tasmania than they are now if the government had acted earlier, more decisively, and more aggressively. Of course everybody would have hated them for it at the time. But many would be better off now (or soon)... perhaps even as many as 7 out of 8 Tasmanians! And 8 out of 8 Tasmanians could even go bushwalking.

[Baeng72]

But many would be better off now (or soon)... perhaps even as many as 7 out of 8 Tasmanians! And 8 out of 8 Tasmanians could even go bushwalking.

Gotcha. I think as we go along, we'll have so many of these sliding door moments.

[Baeng72]

Ha. Even if they can somehow make it compulsory to have some app on a phone, they've got buckleys chance of getting me to be in the habit of going everywhere with a phone.
Even under the threat of gaol, i doubt i could comply.

I read somewhere they only need 40% to do it.
And if they have to make an example of a few like yourself 'pour encourager les autres', well I'm sure they will.
(that was a joke)

[Son of a Beach]

But many would be better off now (or soon)... perhaps even as many as 7 out of 8 Tasmanians! And 8 out of 8 Tasmanians could even go bushwalking.

Gotcha. I think as we go along, we'll have so many of these sliding door moments.

Yep. I remember watching the news here, night after night, when the premier repeated that Tasmania would NOT be closing our borders. Despite suggestions from some that this is exactly what we should be doing immediately. Although of course both sides of the argument then proceeded to disagree on what "closing the borders" really means, and whether that included trade, our just tourists, etc, instead of actually doing anything about it. By the time the premier did effectively "close the borders" (or at least place significant restrictions on people coming in to the state), it was a case of shutting the gate after the horse had bolted.

[Aardvark]

Ha. Even if they can somehow make it compulsory to have some app on a phone, they've got buckleys chance of getting me to be in the habit of going everywhere with a phone.
Even under the threat of gaol, i doubt i could comply.

I read somewhere they only need 40% to do it.
And if they have to make an example of a few like yourself 'pour encourager les autres', well I'm sure they will.
(that was a joke)

Technically, i don't even own a mobile phone. I use one belonging to my partner, for a limited number of things.
I resigned to do no business with telcos over 15 years ago.

[Baeng72]

Ha. Even if they can somehow make it compulsory to have some app on a phone, they've got buckleys chance of getting me to be in the habit of going everywhere with a phone.
Even under the threat of gaol, i doubt i could comply.

I read somewhere they only need 40% to do it.
And if they have to make an example of a few like yourself 'pour encourager les autres', well I'm sure they will.
(that was a joke)

Technically, i don't even own a mobile phone. I use one belonging to my partner, for a limited number of things.
I resigned to do no business with telcos over 15 years ago.

Not helping the economy by participating in consumerism hey? Scotty from Marketing and Peter 'Spud' Dutton probably have you earmarked for Villawood then. Clearly UnAustralian.

[Ms_Mudd]

Saw an interesting post doing the rounds along the lines that easing restrictions due to a flattening curve would be analogous to taking the parachute off after its slowed the rate of descent.

Think that sums it up well.


We are not immune - pun unintended- to ending up like the hard hit countries of the world.

[Moondog55]

Yes but as one of the people supposedly in the higher risk group I can only put up with the current restrictions for another 4 weeks, after that I am willing to take my chances, you can't live forever but you only die once; because no matter how long you live it's a lifetime.
Logically speaking it might be better for me to catch it now than in another decade when it would almost certainly kill me off but now I apparently have an 80% chance of recovery

[CraigVIC]

It seems the movement the other way is happening for better or worse. The Guardian is reporting that restrictions on elective surgery are likely to be lifted next week. WA are reopening schools to students in a couple of weeks. There is some agreement at the national cabinet that an exit strategy will begin in 4 weeks all being equal.

Where bushwalking will fit into that we will wait and see I guess.

[Warin]

Logically speaking it might be better for me to catch it now than in another decade when it would almost certainly kill me off but now I apparently have an 80% chance of recovery

If the medical system is overloaded by people 'catching it now' the recovery rate will decrease. At what recovery rate would you not want to 'catch it now'?

There is some evidence to say that catching it once does not mean you will not 'catch it' again .. and in short order. So even 'catching it now' does not mean you are free of it.

[johnf]

We have a state of emergency declared now. These powers only exist during the emergency.

No sure you have a good handle on where we go from here. Elimination is not really possible in the short-medium term. We might be able to effectively eliminate it from Aust/NZ for a while. There after massive testing and tracing required on any outbreak. This will be until herd immunity is achieved, since we have squashed the curve and not allowing it to run, herd immunity will be achieved through a vaccine if ever.
A vaccine could be quite a while away, there'd be no surprise if 5 years away despite some optimism with hopes for 18 months.

Even then, there are from time to time other epidemics that don't progress to full pandemics will come and go. Naturally the Gov't will say for our own good, better keep the app active so they can respond quicker next time.

Now look at the recent High Court decision. The News Corp journalist had her home raided illegally as she was reporting on moves the Gov't we doing to spy on Aust citizens. Ruled illegal, but the data obtained illegally can still be used in a prosecution. Who thinks that this Gov't or a future one won't use data that shows who is meeting who, either illegally or legally for their own ends. i.e. not in the public interest.

To get this back on track for a bushwalking forum, I say lets get back bushwalking, it's sufficiently low risk for any scenario excepting a full lock-down. It would typically have less people to people contacts compared with what ever else people would be doing.

[Neo]

Fortunately or unfortunately bushwalking enthusiasts are a minority so opening parks and campsites may not be high on the list.

He is one from today, no successful vaccine has been made for treating any form of coronavirus:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020 ... r/12146616

[johnf]

Yes but as one of the people supposedly in the higher risk group I can only put up with the current restrictions for another 4 weeks, after that I am willing to take my chances, you can't live forever but you only die once; because no matter how long you live it's a lifetime.
Logically speaking it might be better for me to catch it now than in another decade when it would almost certainly kill me off but now I apparently have an 80% chance of recovery

It would be better if about 70% of the low risk group (say <55) as they would have a 99.8% chance of surviving (little bit worse than flu). Then if this is a catch it once only virus, you will probably never get it as it won't spread.

On that basis, it is quite a reasonable plan to quarantine older and more at risk people and have a more controlled spread though the community. That is more or less what Sweden is doing but they were careless and slow to protect the aged, so have a high death rate. Unfortunately the elderly would need to be isolated for quite a while. I don't think this has community support here at the moment.

[Baeng72]

Logically speaking it might be better for me to catch it now than in another decade when it would almost certainly kill me off but now I apparently have an 80% chance of recovery

If the medical system is overloaded by people 'catching it now' the recovery rate will decrease. At what recovery rate would you not want to 'catch it now'?

There is some evidence to say that catching it once does not mean you will not 'catch it' again .. and in short order. So even 'catching it now' does not mean you are free of it.

I think the point was 'I'm at an age, where it's unlikely that I'll experience more than flu/cold like symptoms based on what I've read/heard, so better time to get it is now.
In 10 years time, I'll be at an age when the probability that I need ICU is much greater.'
Your point about 'catching it once' is important. Nobody knows if you have immunity to this strain of COVID-19 and people who were clear and are retesting positive (like in S. Korea) are exhibiting a new strain like what happens to me near *&%$#! fortnightly with a cold, or your immune system 'forgets' (lazy *&%$#! t-cells) the crown like signature (see what I did there?) of COVID-19.

[Xplora]

Thank you. I agree that would be disturbing.

I don't think he'd have much chance of getting that passed, even if he did make such a decision. But I've been wrong before. Once. Or twice.

I think there would also be a broad assumption that everyone in Australia owns a smart phone or in fact owns a mobile phone. I would be difficult to legislate compulsory carry a smart phone. I do understand that most people have trouble putting their phones down though.

[Xplora]

We have a state of emergency declared now. These powers only exist during the emergency.

No sure you have a good handle on where we go from here. Elimination is not really possible in the short-medium term. We might be able to effectively eliminate it from Aust/NZ for a while. There after massive testing and tracing required on any outbreak. This will be until herd immunity is achieved, since we have squashed the curve and not allowing it to run, herd immunity will be achieved through a vaccine if ever.
A vaccine could be quite a while away, there'd be no surprise if 5 years away despite some optimism with hopes for 18 months.

Even then, there are from time to time other epidemics that don't progress to full pandemics will come and go. Naturally the Gov't will say for our own good, better keep the app active so they can respond quicker next time.

Now look at the recent High Court decision. The News Corp journalist had her home raided illegally as she was reporting on moves the Gov't we doing to spy on Aust citizens. Ruled illegal, but the data obtained illegally can still be used in a prosecution. Who thinks that this Gov't or a future one won't use data that shows who is meeting who, either illegally or legally for their own ends. i.e. not in the public interest.

To get this back on track for a bushwalking forum, I say lets get back bushwalking, it's sufficiently low risk for any scenario excepting a full lock-down. It would typically have less people to people contacts compared with what ever else people would be doing.

I get it just fine. A number of self interested people think what they do is more important and less dangerous to the general population and these people, because they know so much and are careful, should be given the right to continue their individual activity over and above the rest of the population. These would include fishermen, surfers, golfers, bushwalkers, skiers, rock climbers and feel free to add to the list. Then we have a situation where other groups feel left out and start whinging and we are overrun with people breaking out for personal (selfish) reasons. You say the government will exceed its powers because of this pandemic and try to keep these powers for illegal use later. I could just as easily say that the sort of thinking you sprout could lead to anarchy. Our police resources are being stretched now, checking people travelling for legitimate purpose and you would have thousands more travelling.

We may not get herd immunity and you do not listen to experts who work in ICU who are saying we do not have the resources to manage wide spread infections. So what is the best we can hope for in the short term. Australia is an island and we can largely control our borders. Get infections down and the spread controlled then we can all resume normal tasks while we wait for (1) a cure (2) suitable treatments to reduce the effect. The world just go smaller but we have a big country with a relatively small population. Lucky us. I think I am done with this procrastination for now. There is nothing new to add and no changing the mind of some people. My point has been made well enough also. The discussion may serve as a diversion for those who are trapped but don't let it trap you further. I understand (and empathise) with many of you who are trapped in the city but life here is pretty much the same as before. We spent months in lockdown prior to the pandemic due to bushfires. Could not even go to the shops for some time as the Police would not let you back home but at least we have space at home to enjoy.

Edit: one more thing to add. If you think being under 55 puts you at low risk then read this https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/my-lungs- ... m-effects/ You may not die but you may never bushwalk like you used to. It is not just a mild flu for everyone under 55.

[Warin]

I think there would also be a broad assumption that everyone in Australia owns a smart phone or in fact owns a mobile phone. I would be difficult to legislate compulsory carry a smart phone. I do understand that most people have trouble putting their phones down though.

I think they will get 40% participation just from those people that use their phones on a frequent basis. That will leave the rest of us to do what we feel necessary.

[neilmny]

............I think there would also be a broad assumption that everyone in Australia owns a smart phone or in fact owns a mobile phone. I would be difficult to legislate compulsory carry a smart phone. I do understand that most people have trouble putting their phones down though.

We don't own a smart phone ........... no intention of doing so in the immediate future either.

[Ms_Mudd]

We have a state of emergency declared now. These powers only exist during the emergency.

No sure you have a good handle on where we go from here. Elimination is not really possible in the short-medium term. We might be able to effectively eliminate it from Aust/NZ for a while. There after massive testing and tracing required on any outbreak. This will be until herd immunity is achieved, since we have squashed the curve and not allowing it to run, herd immunity will be achieved through a vaccine if ever.
A vaccine could be quite a while away, there'd be no surprise if 5 years away despite some optimism with hopes for 18 months.

Even then, there are from time to time other epidemics that don't progress to full pandemics will come and go. Naturally the Gov't will say for our own good, better keep the app active so they can respond quicker next time.

Now look at the recent High Court decision. The News Corp journalist had her home raided illegally as she was reporting on moves the Gov't we doing to spy on Aust citizens. Ruled illegal, but the data obtained illegally can still be used in a prosecution. Who thinks that this Gov't or a future one won't use data that shows who is meeting who, either illegally or legally for their own ends. i.e. not in the public interest.

To get this back on track for a bushwalking forum, I say lets get back bushwalking, it's sufficiently low risk for any scenario excepting a full lock-down. It would typically have less people to people contacts compared with what ever else people would be doing.

I get it just fine. A number of self interested people think what they do is more important and less dangerous to the general population and these people, because they know so much and are careful, should be given the right to continue their individual activity over and above the rest of the population. These would include fishermen, surfers, golfers, bushwalkers, skiers, rock climbers and feel free to add to the list. Then we have a situation where other groups feel left out and start whinging and we are overrun with people breaking out for personal (selfish) reasons. You say the government will exceed its powers because of this pandemic and try to keep these powers for illegal use later. I could just as easily say that the sort of thinking you sprout could lead to anarchy. Our police resources are being stretched now, checking people travelling for legitimate purpose and you would have thousands more travelling.


Edit: one more thing to add. If you think being under 55 puts you at low risk then read this https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/my-lungs- ... m-effects/ You may not die but you may never bushwalk like you used to. It is not just a mild flu for everyone under 55.

Well said Xplora, you are totally on point with your observations.
Sadly some people cannot and will not listen and think that they and their own interests are greater than the needs and well being of the majority.

Now I am going to get back to researching, planning and dreaming of walks, farther afield from here, that I will do in post COVID19 times. It is getting cold here this evening, may even don my beanie and drink my tea from my titanium mug and really get into the spirit of imagining.