Baeng72 wrote:Morrison is now hinting he'll make the app compulsory.
Really? Can you link to that please?
Baeng72 wrote:Morrison is now hinting he'll make the app compulsory.
Son of a Beach wrote:slparker wrote:ILUVSWTAS wrote:Does anyone actually believe that without a vaccine eradication is even possible?
No, it isn't possible to eradicate a virus without a vaccine or, if it is, it has never been achieved.
Although global eradication isn't possible, localised eradication should be possible in some areas. Potentially, NZ may be able to eradicated it for their entire country. Too early to tell, and still a very ambitious goal.
Even if local eradication is achieved, keeping it out then becomes a huge challenge. Even if you keep all tourists out, planes and ships crewed by infected people would still be involved in international trade. There are few countries or regions which can get by without such trade these days.
Tasmania would have had a very good chance of keeping it out, but our government was too slow to "close" the borders. If Tasmania had implemented even stricter measures early enough, we could all be back to normal operation by now, with a COVID-19 free state (apart from maintaining super-strict border control measures). Our economy would have been on the road to recover by now, and most people would have their jobs back by now.
Son of a Beach wrote:Tasmania would have had a very good chance of keeping it out, but our government was too slow to "close" the borders. If Tasmania had implemented even stricter measures early enough (as had been recommended by some people), we could all be back to normal operation by now, with a COVID-19 free state (apart from maintaining super-strict border control measures). Our economy would have been on the road to recover by now, and most people (outside the tourism industry) would have their jobs back by now.
Son of a Beach wrote:Baeng72 wrote:Morrison is now hinting he'll make the app compulsory.
Really? Can you link to that please?
Biggles wrote:A more pressing problem is how to get rid of the wet markets scattered around Wuhan, but not exclusively in Wuhan. My niece, visiting the region last year, described two she perused as "cesspits of cruelty and squalor".
Baeng72 wrote:Biggles wrote:A more pressing problem is how to get rid of the wet markets scattered around Wuhan, but not exclusively in Wuhan. My niece, visiting the region last year, described two she perused as "cesspits of cruelty and squalor".
Wet Markets is an ambiguous term. Vic. Market in Elizabeth street Melbourne is a wet market. It has fruit, vegies, meat.
It's the illegal trade in wildlife for bushmeat, illegal pets, Chinese 'medicine', and *&%$#! like that which is the issue.
Baeng72 wrote:Son of a Beach wrote:Tasmania would have had a very good chance of keeping it out, but our government was too slow to "close" the borders. If Tasmania had implemented even stricter measures early enough (as had been recommended by some people), we could all be back to normal operation by now, with a COVID-19 free state (apart from maintaining super-strict border control measures). Our economy would have been on the road to recover by now, and most people (outside the tourism industry) would have their jobs back by now.
I wonder how Tasmania's economy could be said to be on the road to recovery if external tourism is dead, as would be the case with super-strict border control measures.
Baeng72 wrote:Son of a Beach wrote:Baeng72 wrote:Morrison is now hinting he'll make the app compulsory.
Really? Can you link to that please?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... st-updates
Asked in that same interview whether or not he would make downloading the tracing app, and traveling with phones, mandatory, Scott Morrison says:
My preference is not to do that, my preference is to give Australians the go of getting it right.
... I don’t want to be drawn on that [making it mandatory], I want to give Australians the opportunity to get it right. That is my objective, that is my Plan A and I really want Plan A to work.
It starts with 'I don't want to....' then an outbreak occurs, and 'well, my hand was forced'. Or maybe I woke up grumpy (and paranoide) today?
Son of a Beach wrote:Baeng72 wrote:I wonder how Tasmania's economy could be said to be on the road to recovery if external tourism is dead, as would be the case with super-strict border control measures.
Yes, OK, poor choice of words on my part, but hopefully you can see what the point actually was. Ie, that many people would be back at work, the economy would be somewhat better off, people would not have to work from home, and... most importantly... there would be nothing to stop us bushwalking. For most Tasmanians, life would have been back to normal by now.
Warin wrote:Son of a Beach wrote:Baeng72 wrote:I wonder how Tasmania's economy could be said to be on the road to recovery if external tourism is dead, as would be the case with super-strict border control measures.
Yes, OK, poor choice of words on my part, but hopefully you can see what the point actually was. Ie, that many people would be back at work, the economy would be somewhat better off, people would not have to work from home, and... most importantly... there would be nothing to stop us bushwalking. For most Tasmanians, life would have been back to normal by now.
Tourism directly contributes $1.49 billion or about 4.9 per cent to Tasmania's Gross Product. Tourism directly and indirectly supports around 42 000 jobs in Tasmania or about 17.2 per cent of total Tasmanian employment - higher than the national average and the highest in the country.
https://www.tourismtasmania.com.au/industry/facts
Most of the tourist who do accommodation will not be locals... so let us say 1 in 8 people who were employed in Tassie are out of a job due to lack of tourists. That has a flow on effect to others. Not quite 'normal'.
Son of a Beach wrote: But many would be better off now (or soon)... perhaps even as many as 7 out of 8 Tasmanians! And 8 out of 8 Tasmanians could even go bushwalking.
Aardvark wrote:Ha. Even if they can somehow make it compulsory to have some app on a phone, they've got buckleys chance of getting me to be in the habit of going everywhere with a phone.
Even under the threat of gaol, i doubt i could comply.
Baeng72 wrote:Son of a Beach wrote: But many would be better off now (or soon)... perhaps even as many as 7 out of 8 Tasmanians! And 8 out of 8 Tasmanians could even go bushwalking.
Gotcha. I think as we go along, we'll have so many of these sliding door moments.
Baeng72 wrote:Aardvark wrote:Ha. Even if they can somehow make it compulsory to have some app on a phone, they've got buckleys chance of getting me to be in the habit of going everywhere with a phone.
Even under the threat of gaol, i doubt i could comply.
I read somewhere they only need 40% to do it.
And if they have to make an example of a few like yourself 'pour encourager les autres', well I'm sure they will.
(that was a joke)
Aardvark wrote:Baeng72 wrote:Aardvark wrote:Ha. Even if they can somehow make it compulsory to have some app on a phone, they've got buckleys chance of getting me to be in the habit of going everywhere with a phone.
Even under the threat of gaol, i doubt i could comply.
I read somewhere they only need 40% to do it.
And if they have to make an example of a few like yourself 'pour encourager les autres', well I'm sure they will.
(that was a joke)
Technically, i don't even own a mobile phone. I use one belonging to my partner, for a limited number of things.
I resigned to do no business with telcos over 15 years ago.
Walk_fat boy_walk wrote:Saw an interesting post doing the rounds along the lines that easing restrictions due to a flattening curve would be analogous to taking the parachute off after its slowed the rate of descent.
Moondog55 wrote:Logically speaking it might be better for me to catch it now than in another decade when it would almost certainly kill me off but now I apparently have an 80% chance of recovery
Xplora wrote: We have a state of emergency declared now. These powers only exist during the emergency.
Moondog55 wrote:Yes but as one of the people supposedly in the higher risk group I can only put up with the current restrictions for another 4 weeks, after that I am willing to take my chances, you can't live forever but you only die once; because no matter how long you live it's a lifetime.
Logically speaking it might be better for me to catch it now than in another decade when it would almost certainly kill me off but now I apparently have an 80% chance of recovery
Warin wrote:Moondog55 wrote:Logically speaking it might be better for me to catch it now than in another decade when it would almost certainly kill me off but now I apparently have an 80% chance of recovery
If the medical system is overloaded by people 'catching it now' the recovery rate will decrease. At what recovery rate would you not want to 'catch it now'?
There is some evidence to say that catching it once does not mean you will not 'catch it' again .. and in short order.So even 'catching it now' does not mean you are free of it.
Son of a Beach wrote:
Thank you. I agree that would be disturbing.
I don't think he'd have much chance of getting that passed, even if he did make such a decision. But I've been wrong before. Once. Or twice.
johnf wrote:Xplora wrote: We have a state of emergency declared now. These powers only exist during the emergency.
No sure you have a good handle on where we go from here. Elimination is not really possible in the short-medium term. We might be able to effectively eliminate it from Aust/NZ for a while. There after massive testing and tracing required on any outbreak. This will be until herd immunity is achieved, since we have squashed the curve and not allowing it to run, herd immunity will be achieved through a vaccine if ever.
A vaccine could be quite a while away, there'd be no surprise if 5 years away despite some optimism with hopes for 18 months.
Even then, there are from time to time other epidemics that don't progress to full pandemics will come and go. Naturally the Gov't will say for our own good, better keep the app active so they can respond quicker next time.
Now look at the recent High Court decision. The News Corp journalist had her home raided illegally as she was reporting on moves the Gov't we doing to spy on Aust citizens. Ruled illegal, but the data obtained illegally can still be used in a prosecution. Who thinks that this Gov't or a future one won't use data that shows who is meeting who, either illegally or legally for their own ends. i.e. not in the public interest.
To get this back on track for a bushwalking forum, I say lets get back bushwalking, it's sufficiently low risk for any scenario excepting a full lock-down. It would typically have less people to people contacts compared with what ever else people would be doing.
Xplora wrote:I think there would also be a broad assumption that everyone in Australia owns a smart phone or in fact owns a mobile phone. I would be difficult to legislate compulsory carry a smart phone. I do understand that most people have trouble putting their phones down though.
Xplora wrote:............I think there would also be a broad assumption that everyone in Australia owns a smart phone or in fact owns a mobile phone. I would be difficult to legislate compulsory carry a smart phone. I do understand that most people have trouble putting their phones down though.
Xplora wrote:johnf wrote:Xplora wrote: We have a state of emergency declared now. These powers only exist during the emergency.
No sure you have a good handle on where we go from here. Elimination is not really possible in the short-medium term. We might be able to effectively eliminate it from Aust/NZ for a while. There after massive testing and tracing required on any outbreak. This will be until herd immunity is achieved, since we have squashed the curve and not allowing it to run, herd immunity will be achieved through a vaccine if ever.
A vaccine could be quite a while away, there'd be no surprise if 5 years away despite some optimism with hopes for 18 months.
Even then, there are from time to time other epidemics that don't progress to full pandemics will come and go. Naturally the Gov't will say for our own good, better keep the app active so they can respond quicker next time.
Now look at the recent High Court decision. The News Corp journalist had her home raided illegally as she was reporting on moves the Gov't we doing to spy on Aust citizens. Ruled illegal, but the data obtained illegally can still be used in a prosecution. Who thinks that this Gov't or a future one won't use data that shows who is meeting who, either illegally or legally for their own ends. i.e. not in the public interest.
To get this back on track for a bushwalking forum, I say lets get back bushwalking, it's sufficiently low risk for any scenario excepting a full lock-down. It would typically have less people to people contacts compared with what ever else people would be doing.
I get it just fine. A number of self interested people think what they do is more important and less dangerous to the general population and these people, because they know so much and are careful, should be given the right to continue their individual activity over and above the rest of the population. These would include fishermen, surfers, golfers, bushwalkers, skiers, rock climbers and feel free to add to the list. Then we have a situation where other groups feel left out and start whinging and we are overrun with people breaking out for personal (selfish) reasons. You say the government will exceed its powers because of this pandemic and try to keep these powers for illegal use later. I could just as easily say that the sort of thinking you sprout could lead to anarchy. Our police resources are being stretched now, checking people travelling for legitimate purpose and you would have thousands more travelling.
Edit: one more thing to add. If you think being under 55 puts you at low risk then read this https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/my-lungs- ... m-effects/ You may not die but you may never bushwalk like you used to. It is not just a mild flu for everyone under 55.
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